2018 was a great year for the box office. Venom and Aquaman over-performed, two of the Marvel movies made over a billion dollars, the anticipated sequel to the Incredibles did great and so did a new Jurassic movie. A Star is Born was a hit while Fallout and Bohemian Rhapsody both grossed way more than expectations. 2019 is probably going to be even bigger as several high profile blockbusters are set to release. Today, I’m going to predict the 2019 box office numbers. All numbers in the headings are worldwide grosses
EDITS OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR BELOW
10. Secret Life of Pets 2 ($820mil)
The first one made quite a lot of money so I expect this to do the same. I’m not a fan of the original but it did get a good response and I expect this will be the same. The only reason this isn’t higher is because Toy Story 4 comes out within two weeks and I expect both movies to cut at each other’s box office.
9. Aladdin ($850mil)
The only reason this movie isn’t higher is because of that horrendous cover that came out. The general consensus towards this movie seems to be more negative due to that. But, I’m still confident that hardcore fans will still show up and this will make good money. Will Smith is a star and the animated is a beloved Disney classic. I’m predicting $850 million at the box office which is around $100 mil less than 2016’s The Jungle Book.
8. Hobbs and Shaw ($880mil)
Hobbs and Shaw is a Fast and Furious spin-off and those movies always seem to make a billion at the box office. The only reason I don’t think this will is because it’s a spin-off and those tend to make less. However, it does have the Rock, who is the biggest movie star on the planet (both literally and figuratively), so it is possible that this could climb to a billion. For now, I’m predicting $880 million at the box office.
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($945mil)
Marvel tend to do really well and this should be no different. Most people loved Spider-Man Homecoming and I expect this to make more than the previous films. Spider-Man has been huge in 2018 with his video game, Venom, and Spider Verse. Due to this, I expect most people will want more of the character and this movie will just fall short of a billion.
6. Jumanji 3 ($970mil)
The last Jumanji was one of the biggest box office surprises and made $962 million. The movie had great legs which is a huge indication that the general public seemed to really enjoy the movie. If this is as good, expect it to make similar numbers. I do think it will be more front loaded this time around with an opening north of $100 million in the US.
5. Toy Story 4 ($1bn)
Toy Story 3 was a huge movie and this should be no different. The fact that the original came out in 1995 and the third came out in 2010 means that different generations will show up for this due to nostalgia. The movie will also appeal to little kids and that’s why it will make a billion. Secret Life of Pets 2 is the only reason I’m not putting this movie higher because I expect that the audiences will overlap and both movies will make a little less than they normally would.
4. Frozen 2 ($1.25bn)
Frozen 2 is going to be a hit at the box office. The original is now one of the most beloved Disney movies and this movie is going to crush. It comes out at a time where competition is light now that Wonder Woman 84 and Bond 25 have moved. It will fall short in comparison to the first one and that’s because there has been some backlash over the last few years.
3. Star Wars Episode IX ($1.5bn)
Had The Last Jedi been less divisive and had Solo not been an absolute financial disaster, this movie would’ve been higher. The Star Wars fandom is still toxic and I’m not exactly sure how people will respond to this one. Something tells me that a one and a half year gap with this and Solo will help in the same way it helped that Aquaman was a year after Justice League. This movie will make around $1.5 billion at the box office.
2. Lion King ($1.9bn)
The buzz around this movie after the trailer came out was insane. Lion King is one of, if not the most beloved animated movies of all time and this is the peak of the Disney live action remakes. I expect it to EASILY out gross Beauty and the Beast which made around $1.2 billion at the box office. The trailer views are close to Infinity War and I expect this to make slightly less than $2 billion.
1. Avengers: Endgame ($2.1bn)
Could there be another movie at this position? Endgame is one of the most anticipated movies in recent memory and I expect this to absolutely crush at the box office. Unlike last year, where Deadpool 2 and Solo came out after Infinity War, this May is lighter when it comes to competition. Unless Detective Pikachu breaks out, nothing until Aladdin should pose a huge threat to the movie and that is why I expect it to make more than Infinity War and The Force Awakens at the box office.
EDITS/REACTIONS TO 2019 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS
EDIT #1: So we’re in April and clearly I was wrong about Captain Marvel. That movie is probably going to end up being in the top 5 by the end of the year. Obviously I expected it to do well but I did not think a billion dollars was a possibility. I would also knock my Aladdin number down by around $150-200 million. That marketing campaign has been awful. And the reception to The Rise of Skywalker trailer means that I’m changing that number to $1.7 billion.
EDIT #2: Well Endgame just made $1.2 billion and it’s only been out for 5 days. I don’t know how well this is going to hold but I have a hard time believing this movie doesn’t cross Avatar. Changing that prediction to $2.9 billion.
EDIT #3: So Avengers: Endgame is on track to make around $2.75 billion and might just fall short of Avatar. It could go either way at this point. Secret Life of Pets 2 opens this weekend and the lack of buzz tells me I predicted a worldwide total that is way too high. Aladdin should make around my updated $650-700 million prediction. The Lion King is tracking well and I think it will hit at least $1.5 billion and should hit my prediction.
EDIT #4: So it looks like Aladdin is going to make my original prediction and that’s pretty insane. Definitely a surprise hit in an otherwise disappointing summer. Toy Story 4 just opened to $240m worldwide so it should leg out to around a billion. I was absolutely wrong about Secret Life of Pets 2 wow.
EDIT #5 (July 22nd): So I’m putting dates on these from now. Should’ve stuck with my original prediction for Aladdin. Looks like it’s about to hit one billion. Far From Home exceeded my expectations and will be the first Spider-Man film to make a billion. Lion King had a massive opening weekend and has already crossed half a billion dollars. Could hit my prediction but we’ll have to see how it holds. The only prediction on this list that I overestimated was Secret Life of Pets 2, which ended nowhere near my prediction.
EDIT #6 (August 4th): The Lion King (2019) looks like it joins The Secret Life of Pets 2 as movies I overestimated. To be fair, I was expecting The Lion King to be good. Unfortunately, it wasn’t. Despite not meeting my box office expectations, it is nothing but a massive hit for Disney. I can see it finishing around $1.5 billion. Hobbs and Shaw had a decent opening weekend. Probably won’t hit my initial prediction but there’s still time before the China release so we’ll have to wait and see.
EDIT #7 (November 25th): So it’s been a while and quite a lot has happened. Joker joins Captain Marvel as one of the comic book movies I drastically underestimated. Knew it would be a hit but I did not see $1.035 billon coming. Frozen 2 had an incredible opening weekend. Still going to stick with my prediction but if it legs out over the next few weeks $1.5 billion isn’t out of the question. Good early Jumanji 3 reactions also means that a billon is definitely possible.
EDIT #8: Well Jumanji and Star Wars join the list of movies I drastically overestimated. The Rise of Skywalker was, in my opinion, a pretty pathetic conclusion and completely undid the bold choices made by Rian Johnson (I liked The Last Jedi). I see it hitting around $1.1 billion. Jumanji should hit around $650 million if it holds the way I expect it to.